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06/02/2010 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Friday, June 4. Race: WinStar World Casino 400k. Site: Texas Motor Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 9:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 167. Miles: 400 (kilometers). 2009 winner: Todd Bodine. Television: SPEED. Radio: Motor Racing Network(MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
The Camping World Truck Series will run at the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway for the 25th time on Friday. Todd Bodine has won a record five truck races at Texas.
One year ago, Bodine capitalized on a late-race pit strategy to win at Texas. Bodine elected not to pit for fuel during the last round of stops. He grabbed the lead with 43 laps remaining, and then easily held off Matt Crafton at the finish. Bodine became the first driver in the series to win five races at the same track.
The 2006 series champion has not won since last year's spring race at Texas.
"This Germain Racing team has been working hard," Bodine said. "At Dover, we didn't have a truck to win the race, but we still got a fifth. That's how you win points championships is to take a truck that can't win but still finish in the top-five. Then at Charlotte, we had a good truck and finished second."
Ten of Bodine's 17 career truck wins have come at 1.5-mile ovals, making him the series' winningest driver on intermediate tracks.
Bodine currently leads in the standings by just two points over Aric Almirola. It's the closest battle in series history after the first seven races.
"This is shaping up to be a close points battle," said Almirola, who won his first career truck race in May at Dover. "Todd and I are really close in the points now, but there are so many good teams in the Truck Series garage. Ron Hornaday Jr., Timothy Peters, Matt Crafton and Mike Skinner are all going to be there at the end."
Peters led the standings for the first five races this season, but now sits 86 points out of the lead. Hornaday, the four-time and defending series champion, is 103 points behind.
While Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick concentrate on their Sprint Cup Series duties at Pocono this weekend, Johnny Benson will drive Busch's No.18 Toyota, and Ken Schrader will be behind the wheel of Harvick's No.2 Chevrolet at Texas.
Brian Ickler originally was scheduled to drive the No.18 truck at Texas, but Ickler has been offered a partial schedule in the Nationwide Series with Roush Fenway Racing, including this Saturday's race at Nashville. He will drive the No.18 for Kyle Busch Motorsports in some truck races later this year.
Schrader drove Harvick's truck to a ninth-place finish one month ago at Kansas.
Thirty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the WinStar World Casino 400k.
<< Nothing tricky about Pocono for Hamlin
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June
6. Race: Gillette Fusion ProGlide 500. Site: Pocono Raceway. Track: (2.5-mile
triangle. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 500. 2009 winner: Tony
Stewart.
<< Ken Griffey Jr. retires
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ken Griffey Jr. has announced his retirement
from baseball Wednesday just two months into his 22nd major league season.
Griffey informed the Mariners before Wednesday's game against Minnesota and
retires
<< Doan, Miller and Crosby named finalists for Messier Award
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phoenix Coyotes captain Shane Doan,
Buffalo Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller and Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby have been
selected as 2010 finalists for the Mark Messier Leadership Award.
The award recog
<< This Week in Auto Racing June 3 - 6
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All three of NASCAR's national touring series
are scattered throughout the country this weekend. The Sprint Cup Series will
run at Pocono, while the Nationwide Series will compete at Nashville for the
second tim
Dodgers outlast Diamondbacks in 14 innings >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garret Anderson's two-out single in the
14th inning scored Matt Kemp, as the Los Angeles Dodgers outlasted the Arizona
Diamondbacks, 1-0, to complete a three-game series sweep.
Jamey Carroll had three
Rangers' Guerrero hurts eye, taken to hospital >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers outfielder/designated hitter
Vladimir Guerrero was taken to a Chicago hospital after suffering an eye
injury during batting practice.
Guerrero was taking swings in the batting cage, and a ball car
Arizona State lifts interim tag from baseball coach Esmay >>
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona State lifted the interim tag of baseball
coach Tim Esmay, giving him the job on a permanent basis.
Esmay took over in December to replace Pat Murphy, who resigned after more
than 15 years in the posi
Briere's PP goal gives Flyers lead after one period in Game 3 >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Briere's power-play goal late in the
first period gave the Philadelphia Flyers a 1-0 edge over the Chicago
Blackhawks after 20 minutes of play in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals from
Wachovia Center.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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