2009 Sun Belt Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 33rd-annual Sun Belt Conference Tournament, which includes all 13 members, will begin at campus venues on Wednesday, before moving to Summit Arena for the final three rounds.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans won the East and West Divisions, respectively, with identical 15-3 records. The Hilltoppers though, swept the Trojans during the regular season and were awarded the top seed in the tournament. Troy finished slightly behind WKU and UALR at 14-4, so it received the No.3 seed. The top three seeds earn a bye in the first round, while the rest of the league must battle for the right to move on to Hot Springs for the quarterfinals.

The North Texas Mean Green claimed the fourth seed with an 11-7 finish and will host 13th-seeded Florida Atlantic, which went just 2-16 in league play. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and South Alabama Jaguars both had 10-8 league records and after the tie-breaker scenario was worked out, it was the Raiders who landed the fifth seed. MT will take on 12th-seeded Arkansas State, which finished 5-13, while the sixth-seeded Jaguars will entertain the 11th- seeded New Orleans Privateers after their 6-12 showing. The UL-Monroe Warhawks also recorded a 6-12 ledger, but owned the tie-breaker with New Orleans and were given the 10th seed. The Warhawks will clash with the Denver Pioneers, who earned the seventh seed with an even 9-9 performance. The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and Florida International Golden Panthers both ended with 7-11 records, but tie-breaker went to the Cajuns and they get to host the Panthers in the first round.

The ninth-seeded Panthers versus the eighth-seeded Cajuns are one of five first round games on tap for Wednesday. In league games, ULL went 6-3 at home compared to 1-8 on the road, so it was important that the Cajuns won the tie- breaker with FIU in order to host this bout. ULL has had great success in this event, going 24-12 all-time and capturing five titles. FIU, on the other hand, is just 5-9 lifetime in the tourney and is in search of its first championship.

The 13th-seeded Owls bring a five-game losing streak to Denton, where they will take on the fourth-seeded Mean Green in the first round. FAU is 0-17 on the road this season, while North Texas owns an 11-4 mark at home. The Mean Green won its lone title in this tourney in 2007, and the Owls have gone 2-2 in their only two appearances.

The fifth-seeded Blue Raiders welcome the 12th-seeded Red Wolves to Murfreesboro for a first-round match up on Wednesday. MT won the lone meeting with ASU during the season and has gone 6-3 in conference home games. The Blue Raiders have posted a 10-8 mark in this tourney, including a 67-57 loss to Western Kentucky in the finals last season. ASU won its lone title in 1999, but it enters the postseason riding a lengthy nine-game slide.

After earning the top seed last season, the Jaguars had to settle for the sixth spot and a first-round home game against 11th-seeded New Orleans this year. USA is one of the most decorated teams in the SBC, as it has won the tourney title on five occasions, most recently in 2006. The Privateers claimed their second championship in 1996, but they most likely won't get past the first round this season considering their 0-9 record on the road in league games.

The seventh-seeded Pioneers and 10th-seeded Warhawks will meet in Colorado in first-round action on Wednesday as well. Denver boasts an 11-3 home ledger, while ULM sports a poor 2-11 road mark. Neither team has won a title in this event, but the Pioneers did reach the finals in 2005, losing out to ULL.

Top-seeded WKU will start off quarterfinal round play on Sunday, as it awaits the winner of the ULL/FIU matchup. The Toppers defeated MT in their finale to wrap up the SBC regular-season title, the program's 41st league championship (regular season and tournament titles). WKU won its unprecedented sixth SBC Tournament title last season as a third seed and is 34-20 all-time in this event.

Muck like WKU, second-seed UALR will be awaiting the arrival of its quarterfinal round opponent at Summit Arena on Sunday. The Trojans will face off against the survivor of the ULM/Denver contest. UALR recorded a school- record 15 SBC wins this season on its way to the program's fourth West Division title in six years. The Trojans also reached the 20-win plateau for the second straight season, a feat they hadn't accomplished since the 1988-89 and 1989-90 campaigns. UALR though, is still looking for that elusive first title despite winning 15 games in this tourney.

The quarterfinal round will conclude with third-seeded Troy taking on either New Orleans or South Alabama on Sunday. The Trojans ripped off wins in 12 of their last 13 outings, although a heart-breaking, 87-86, loss to FIU on February 19th ultimately cost them a share of the league crown. Still, the run pushed Troy to 19-11 overall, marking its best record since the 2003-04 season.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

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