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04/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unless we see a handful of defections between now and May 1, it looks as if the $300,000 Lexington Stakes will not be a major factor in determining the Kentucky Derby lineup.
The only horse with a chance of reaching the starting gate on the first Saturday in May is Todd Pletcher's Connemara, and even if the son of Giant's Causeway hits the wire first, Pletcher isn't 100% certain he'll send the chestnut colt into the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Still, the Grade 2 event is a compelling betting race featuring 12 horses of equal talent. Even the morning line oddsmaker had difficulty determining a favorite as four colts are between 4 and 6-1.
The tepid early favorite is Uptowncharlybrown, who'll be the sentimental choice after losing his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a deadly heart attack earlier in the week. Linda White, his longtime assistant, will saddle the fifth-place finisher from the Tampa Bay Derby.
Uptowncharlybrown does receive a positive rider change going from Daniel Centeno to Garrett Gomez but the long-striding son of Limehouse is still an unknown over the Polytrack surface. It's quite possible even with the jockey switch that the colt could regress in the Lexington.
As mentioned earlier, Connemara is the lone horse in the race with a chance to be draped with the blanket of roses in two weeks. He ran third in his last start - the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park - the first time he failed to finish first or second in five lifetime appearances.
Connemara has had multiple problems getting out of the gate with the rest of the horses and it severely affected his chances in the Lane's End after hopping at the start. Don't expect his penchant for poor breaks to improve in the Lexington as he has now broke slowly in four of his five career efforts.
Kettle River is another colt with something to prove after a disastrous eighth- place finish in the Sham Stakes back on March 5. In that race, jockey Brice Blanc got him in all sorts of trouble right from the start breaking dead last in the 10-horse field. Remaining in that position after checking slightly around the far turn, the son of Congaree was finally free and clear through the stretch but had little in the tank inside the final furlong.
As is the case with Uptowncharlybrown, a rider change from Blanc to J.J. Castellano could move the horse forward. The unknown factor is Polytrack as Kettle River has never set foot in a race on that type of synthetic. Nevertheless, his workouts at Keeneland could indicate a liking for the surface, especially after he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 earlier in the week. If he's ever going to get back to his winning ways, this Saturday could be the day.
One horse that shouldn't have any problems with Polytrack is Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten prevailed in an allowance race on opening day at Keeneland by over six lengths, and Kiaran McLaughlin sends him right back 15 days later.
He should break quickly from the rail but the key will be for jockey Alan Garcia not to get caught in an early speed duel with Exhi. If those two colts go too fast in the first half of the race, it is doubtful either one will find himself in the winner's circle.
Speaking of Exhi, he's the second Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the race besides Connemara. Don't forget, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won the Lexington the last two years with Advice and Behindatthebar.
Exhi was abused by Odysseus in a Tampa Bay allowance race in mid-February, losing by 15 lengths. However, he had a built-in excuse that day since it was his first start off a 116-day layoff.
The son of Maria's Mon bounced back to win the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, the same day as the Lane's End. Ridden by Russell Baze, the bay colt led by a full length throughout, with splits of 47 2/5, 1:11 2/5 and 1:37 3/5 for four, six and eight furlongs, before finishing up the 1 1/16 in 1:44 2/5.
For comparison purposes, the internal fractions of the Lane's End were 48 2/5, 1:12 3/5 and 1:37 4/5, with the winner, Dean's Kitten, running a slower time at each point in the race. In addition, the horse on the lead for all three splits wound up ninth and last.
Robby Albarado will take him as far as he can go on Saturday but don't expect similar results since Krypton will be breathing down his neck for much of the race.
LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER
I mentioned earlier that the Lexington is a very contentious race, so there will be a few decently-priced horses to keep a watchful eye on.
Call Shot comes to Keeneland off a third-place finish to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 27. He ran his final quarter-mile that day in 24 1/5 showing that the 1 1/16-miles won't be too much of a burden.
Don't forget, the $235,000 yearling purchase was actually favored over (and defeated) American Lion last September. He then followed up that effort with a win (via disqualification) over Polytrack at Keeneland.
Call Shot has been working well over the track as evidenced by his 58 2/5 bullet on April 5 - his fastest work of 2010. There's a good chance he'll be at least 10-1, so pluck a few dollars down on the son of Tale of the Cat.
Prince Will I Am makes his first start in almost two months since an eighth- place run in the Fountain of Youth. In fact, he's now lost twice to Eskendereya by over 30 lengths. On the other hand, the Kentucky-bred already has a victory at 45-1 and a second-place finish at 42-1 so he's proven to be able to fool the public on more than one occasion. His late closing style should pay dividends at Keeneland so don't rush to throw him out of the exotics.
Distorted Dave comes into the Lexington off a huge score at Santa Anita, knocking off both Big Man Has a Sign and Indian Firewater by over four lengths. Trainer John Sadler has been hot as a pistol with Sidney's Candy and Line of David winning Grade I stakes this month so toss Distorted Dave at your own risk.
Chief Counsel is another colt with a license to improve off his last outing. The Bill Mott-trained three-year-old was the next-to-last priced horse in the Lane's End but finished a decent fourth in his first graded stakes appearance.
He comes into the Lexington off just one posted workout since that race but it was a dandy 46 4/5 breeze over the track last Saturday. It will be interesting to see if he is able to carry some of that early morning speed into the race, especially since his only start at Keeneland was a gate-to-wire victory over First Dude, who just finished third in the Blue Grass.
Unfortunately, he's stuck all the way on the outside in post 12, so even if Kent Desormeaux wants some early speed he might be forced wide if Exhi, Heavenville and Kettle River all break sharply from his inside.
Heavenville comes into the Lexington off a 6 1/4-length win in an ungraded state-bred stakes event on Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds. His 1:44 2/5 final time for the 1 1/16-mile race compared very favorably to Mission Impazible's victory in the Derby so keep that in mind when you see him go off at 20-1 or higher.
Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) Call Shot; 3) Distorted Dave. The longshot is Prince Will I Am.
MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR RETURNS
After knocking off entry-level allowance foes on March 14, Medaglia d'Amour takes a giant step up in class this Saturday in the Grade II Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita.
The four-year-old filly also must contend with the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance after running a flat mile last month. However, she's bred to run all day as her dam, Izara, is a half-sister to Fraise, and her granddam, defeated John Henry in the 1983 Oak Tree Invitational.
Tuscan Evening, the expected favorite, comes into the Santa Barbara riding high a three-race stakes winning streak so Medaglia d'Amour's price should be a square one.
If she is able to come through with a victory, there's no telling how good the Ben Cecil-trained filly could be.
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In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
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Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
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